Tuesday, December 28, 2010
Bangla Book website has 22 thousand visitors today
My personal website Bangla Book has entered into 22 thousand visitors today since its inception in February, 2008. I would like to thank those who spent their valuable time on my website.
Thursday, December 23, 2010
Abar Shei Britte (Back again to Circle)
Dear Orchona, You may ask me about the progress of the manuscript entitled "Abar Shei Britte (Back Again to Circle)" supposed to be published on Jan 20, 2011 (as declared in my personal website).
The answer is, Yes, I am writing but speed is little bit slow as most of the time I spend on hunting a proper job around.
You may expect a good news soon about a proper job. Otherwise, I will be forgetting all of my econometrics applications that require regular practice and exercises.
If you do not practice econometrics for more than three months, you are likely to forget all those stuffs.
The answer is, Yes, I am writing but speed is little bit slow as most of the time I spend on hunting a proper job around.
You may expect a good news soon about a proper job. Otherwise, I will be forgetting all of my econometrics applications that require regular practice and exercises.
If you do not practice econometrics for more than three months, you are likely to forget all those stuffs.
Tuesday, December 21, 2010
Nearly 1 in 3 working families are struggling now in USA
A statistic reveals that nearly 1 in 3 working families are struggling now to manage their basic needs in the United States.In other words, about 100 million people are struggling out 308 million, the population size of the United States.
Situation may get deteriorated further in 2011 if Govt cut social security spending to manage its deficit of USD 1.4 trillion now.
Annual US Federal Govt budget stands at almost USD 3.5 trillion but half of it goes to support the needy people of the society through social security program (unemployment benefit, food etc), medicaid (health support) and medicare (health support) program.
Almost 13-17 percent of the population are living below the poverty line in USA and without govt support they may not even survive especially no one can afford medical bill. In USA, the medical bill is always a giant figure. So if you are sick and if you do not have any medical insurance or if you are not attached with any Govt health program such as medicare or medicaid or so on, you will have to spend all of your properties for treatment.
In USA, if you are sick you can admit any medical hospital for treatment. Hospital will treat you whether you can pay or not. After treatment they will send you the medical bill.
Suppose your medical bill has been USD 10 thousand. If you are not capable to pay right now (you do not have any medical insurance also), hospital may ask you to pay in 4/5 years time. They will set an installment amount for every month so that you can pay in next 4/5 years.
By law, a hospital can not deny your treatment by saying that you are not capable to pay. Treatment first whoever (citizen, illegal, tourist, student etc) you are.
Situation may get deteriorated further in 2011 if Govt cut social security spending to manage its deficit of USD 1.4 trillion now.
Annual US Federal Govt budget stands at almost USD 3.5 trillion but half of it goes to support the needy people of the society through social security program (unemployment benefit, food etc), medicaid (health support) and medicare (health support) program.
Almost 13-17 percent of the population are living below the poverty line in USA and without govt support they may not even survive especially no one can afford medical bill. In USA, the medical bill is always a giant figure. So if you are sick and if you do not have any medical insurance or if you are not attached with any Govt health program such as medicare or medicaid or so on, you will have to spend all of your properties for treatment.
In USA, if you are sick you can admit any medical hospital for treatment. Hospital will treat you whether you can pay or not. After treatment they will send you the medical bill.
Suppose your medical bill has been USD 10 thousand. If you are not capable to pay right now (you do not have any medical insurance also), hospital may ask you to pay in 4/5 years time. They will set an installment amount for every month so that you can pay in next 4/5 years.
By law, a hospital can not deny your treatment by saying that you are not capable to pay. Treatment first whoever (citizen, illegal, tourist, student etc) you are.
Saturday, December 18, 2010
Abar Shei Britte (Back Again To Circle)
My new book (cover page is sighted below) entitled : Abar Shei Britte (Back Again to Circle) is going to be published on Jan 20, 2010 on line. The book is written in Bengali language. This would be my second book after coming to USA in May 2010. It is a free reading book. For further details, Click here
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| My new book : Abar Shei Britte |
Wednesday, December 15, 2010
Should US Congress approve tax cut?
The question is raised now whether US Congress should pass the tax cut bill. There are pros and cons involved with this tax cut bill being debated in US Congress. They are:
First, If the tax cut is approved, the Government budget deficit will increase (as govt revenue goes down) to a new height (currrently, it is almost 1.3 trillion). As a result, Govt will have to borrow more to finance its deficit, so total debt will be hieghtened further. Currently debt is almost 14 trillion, 100 percent of US economic size or GDP ( GDP is the total value of goods and services produced in a year)
Second, If there is a tax cut, certainly investment by the business and spending by the households would be boosted. Hence more employment and output.
As interest rate is gone down to almost zero percent and the tax cut is on its way, US economy is likely to experience at least 3-4 percent growth in 2011 and 2012 if other factors remain unchanged. Hence, more employment and output. But this enhancement will be achieved at the cost of increased govt debt (due to tax cut).
Third, if the economy really tends to grow at 3 percent or more in 2011 and 2012, Prof Bernanke, the Chief of US Central Bank is likely to come down hard with his monetary weapons. They are likely to mop up excess liquidity from the financial system by selling bond from Central Bank's possession. This mop up procedure will be conducted to reduce excess demand so as to control inflation.
Forth, As I said, US Central Bank is injecting USD 600 billion now to lower the interest rate. But Central Bank only can control the short run interest rate but not long run. If you see the current Yield to Maturity (YTM) curve, you will find that it is steeper now meaning that yield of the bond will go up in the long run especially in the case of treasury bonds linked with 10 years and 30 years maturity. In other words, we are expecting higher interest rates in the long run.
Interest rate will be high in the long run meaning that economy will be growing at a faster rate in future as has been reflected in the steeper Yield to Maturity (YTM) curve.
Long run fixed mortgage rates are all on the rise (in case of fixed mortgage rates) as they normally follow Yield to Maturity (YTM) curve of the treasury bonds. As a result, long run industries especially housing one may be affected adversely due to hike mortgage rates.
Since economy is likely to experience inflation in the long run due to tax cut, it would be preferable to invest in stocks rather than bonds as bond prices will be lowered in the long run as YTM will be on the rise in future.
I am expecting 3-4 percent growth in 2011 and 2012 due to tax cut and low interest rate but the whole process will be nullified if the Central Bank fails to contain inflation, likely to come due to excess spending.
Historically we have observed that inflation is the most disturbance element for an economy as it eats up our asset, income and standard of living.
So if there is tax cut, employment and economic growth will be accelerated but at the cost of debt. So we have to decide which one we prefer.
Should we accept debt for attaining lower unemployment rate? I would like to discuss this issue in another article.
To know some meanings of economics words, you are welcome to visit my personal website. Click here
First, If the tax cut is approved, the Government budget deficit will increase (as govt revenue goes down) to a new height (currrently, it is almost 1.3 trillion). As a result, Govt will have to borrow more to finance its deficit, so total debt will be hieghtened further. Currently debt is almost 14 trillion, 100 percent of US economic size or GDP ( GDP is the total value of goods and services produced in a year)
Second, If there is a tax cut, certainly investment by the business and spending by the households would be boosted. Hence more employment and output.
As interest rate is gone down to almost zero percent and the tax cut is on its way, US economy is likely to experience at least 3-4 percent growth in 2011 and 2012 if other factors remain unchanged. Hence, more employment and output. But this enhancement will be achieved at the cost of increased govt debt (due to tax cut).
Third, if the economy really tends to grow at 3 percent or more in 2011 and 2012, Prof Bernanke, the Chief of US Central Bank is likely to come down hard with his monetary weapons. They are likely to mop up excess liquidity from the financial system by selling bond from Central Bank's possession. This mop up procedure will be conducted to reduce excess demand so as to control inflation.
Forth, As I said, US Central Bank is injecting USD 600 billion now to lower the interest rate. But Central Bank only can control the short run interest rate but not long run. If you see the current Yield to Maturity (YTM) curve, you will find that it is steeper now meaning that yield of the bond will go up in the long run especially in the case of treasury bonds linked with 10 years and 30 years maturity. In other words, we are expecting higher interest rates in the long run.
Interest rate will be high in the long run meaning that economy will be growing at a faster rate in future as has been reflected in the steeper Yield to Maturity (YTM) curve.
Long run fixed mortgage rates are all on the rise (in case of fixed mortgage rates) as they normally follow Yield to Maturity (YTM) curve of the treasury bonds. As a result, long run industries especially housing one may be affected adversely due to hike mortgage rates.
Since economy is likely to experience inflation in the long run due to tax cut, it would be preferable to invest in stocks rather than bonds as bond prices will be lowered in the long run as YTM will be on the rise in future.
I am expecting 3-4 percent growth in 2011 and 2012 due to tax cut and low interest rate but the whole process will be nullified if the Central Bank fails to contain inflation, likely to come due to excess spending.
Historically we have observed that inflation is the most disturbance element for an economy as it eats up our asset, income and standard of living.
So if there is tax cut, employment and economic growth will be accelerated but at the cost of debt. So we have to decide which one we prefer.
Should we accept debt for attaining lower unemployment rate? I would like to discuss this issue in another article.
To know some meanings of economics words, you are welcome to visit my personal website. Click here
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| Maria with my spectacle |
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